- Уул уурхай, барилга, тээврийн салбараас бусад салбарууд цар тахлаас өмнөх үеийн түвшинд хүрчээ
Нийлүүлэлтийн шинэ “шок” үүсэхгүй байх тохиолдолд 2023 онд ДНБ 4 хувиар өсөх төлөвтэй гэж Монголбанк тооцоолоод байна
2022 оны сүүлийн хагаст экспортын гол нэрийн бүтээгдэхүүнүүд, тэр дундаа нүүрсний экспорт эрчимжих тохиолдолд эдийн засаг энэ онд гурав орчим хувийн өсөлттэй гарна гэж Монголбанк тооцооллоо.
Монгол Улсаас БНХАУ-д экспортолж буй нүүрсний хэмжээг 2022-2025 он дуустал жил бүр 40-70 сая тонн байлгах квотыг харилцан тохиролцсон байна.
Уул уурхайн бус салбаруудын нийт нийлүүлэлтийг дүнгээр тооцвол 2019 оны мөн үе буюу эхний хагасаас 5.2 хувиар өндөр байгаа аж. Ерөнхийдөө уул уурхай, барилга, тээврийн салбараас бусад салбарууд цар тахлаас өмнөх үеийн түвшинд хүрсэн гэж үзэж байна.
Оны эхний найман сарын статистик мэдээллээр нүүрсний экспорт өмнөх оны мөн үеэс 35.3 хувиар өссөн ч 2020 оны мөн үеэс 2.1 хувиар буурчээ.
Үүнээс гадна төмрийн хүдрийн экспорт өмнөх оны мөн үеэс 50.1 хувиар, боловсруулаагүй нефтийн экспорт 73.8 хувиар буурсан үзүүлэлттэй байна.
Нүүрс тээврийн хувьд Тавантолгой-Гашуунсухайт чиглэлд төмөр замаар тээвэрлэлт хийх боломжтой болсноор 2022-2025 онд жилд 10 сая хүртэл тонн, 2035 он гэхэд 20 сая тонн тээвэрлэлт хийдэг болно гэж тооцоолжээ.
Мөн Монгол Улсаас БНХАУ-д экспортолж буй нүүрсний хэмжээг 2022-2025 он дуустал жил бүр 40-70 сая тонн байлгах квотыг харилцан тохиролцсон байна.
Ингэснээр экспорт хэвийн түвшинд хүрч, зээлийн тасалдал, нийлүүлэлтийн шинэ “шок” үүсэхгүй байх тохиолдолд ирэх онд эдийн засаг дөрөв орчим хувь өснө гэж Монголбанк үзэж байгаа юм.
Хэдий тийм боловч “Эдийн засгийн тэлэлт эхлээгүй, бууралтын үе шатандаа явж байгаа”, мөн “Бүтээгдэхүүний цэвэр татварыг хасан тооцвол Монгол Улсын 2022 оны эхний хагас жилийн өсөлт 0.2 хувьтай гарахаар байсан” гэдгийг Эдийн засагч С.Дэмбэрэл тодотгож байна.
Эдийн засагч С.Дэмбэрэл
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